ENVIRONMENT AND HOLISTIC WELL-BEING
By Prof.Dr. Erkki Pulliainen, MP

   Food and shelter are basic ecological factors. They concern equally animals and man in the sense that both may be linked to the carrying capacity of nature. There is, however, one fundamental difference between them; the population dynamics of animals do not include any humane aspects - nature is very cruel, although at the same time often beautiful and well adapted to its purpose in the prevailing conditions. Animals do not understand what they do, whereas man does. The worldwide important key question is, how man uses the creativity which has resulted in elements from ethic norms to very sophisticated but, at the same time destructive and/or ecologically unacceptable technical solutions.
    Although man has a huge intellectual potential, he/she has so far never consciously really influenced the direction of human life's great changes on this planet, and he/she has never understood the influences of his/her behaviour and reproduction on his/her values and attitudes. Man's previous cultures have not known this, the present one does owing to the findings of science. This sets great, and in many respects decisive, responsibility on the present advanced civilized  democracies and political leaders.
    In order to pick up lessons from past experience for the planning of the future we have to review the main points of man's deceased cultures and the previous phases of the present technoculture. Distinctive marks of "human well-being" can be expected to vary with time, the prevailing conditions and/or the phase of culture in question.

Life-curve of deceased cultures
   The Harvard professor Marvin Harris has shown that deceased cultures have followed the same pattern in their development. At the very beginning there was a breeding pair, a man and his wife, which successfully raised its offspring. During the next generations the population further increased in numbers which resulted in demand for increasing the efficiency of both food production and building new shelter. In the prevailing conditions a situation was finally achieved in which further improvement of efficiency was impossible within the area at their disposal.
    If the efficiency has been maximized, the only relevant choice has appeared to be to increase competition for the essential natural resources available. Competition tends to favour acceptance of habits previously held as unacceptable, i.e. bad habits ritualize. In many deceased cultures, among others, killing of children has been held "natural" in this phase of the change. This kind of development must have finally led to the crash of the whole culture. This has also taken place. Today we can look at ruins of buildings left behind these cultures in South and Central America, for instance.
    The pattern described and regarded as a general one by Harris leads us to pay attention to some relevant aspects. Nowadays it is very popular among biologists to describe population dynamics of animals and interspecific relationships with the aid of mathematical models. The regularity of the life-curve of the deceased cultures recorded seems to be even more than a mathematical model. A question arises: "Is this due to the lack of enemies (predators in animal ecology terms)  and/or a situation where understanding modifies man's response to the realities of nature always in the same manner?"
    Another relevant question concerns "well-being". In which stage(s) of this development we can speak about "well-being"? According to our present ethic principles the killing of a child is absolutely forbidden and criminal. But might the people of a deceased culture think in this way? How soon did the ritualization of the bad habits take place? Although we will never get reliable answers to these questions, we can compare the current developments of habits to those of the deceased cultures.

Past periods of industrialism
    Gathering, hunting, fishing and agriculture constituted the main sources of livelihood of the deceased cultures. The development of the measures of agriculture liberated employees from this activity. Great many of them were "saved" to earn their every-day-food by arising industrialism since the 1750's; masses of landless people would have been otherwise doomed to extreme poverty. In their cases nobody can speak about "well-being".
    The period of deceased cultures and later periods characterized by achievements of technology and science are especially interesting for the planning of the future in two senses: How much and what kind of pollution, on the one hand, and biodiversity, on the other hand, have they left? What positive tools and structures have they left to be used in the building of "well-being" of sustainable development?
    The era of industrialism can be divided into periods, which can be named according to some industry or industries. Our planet is so small that also here one or two sectors have been dominant during each of the 40 through 60 year-long periods. Each period has been finished by the saturation of markets when "all have been doing the same things". The four past periods were as follows:
   I.   The period of the steam engine and cotton;
   II.  The period of the steel industry and railways;
   III. The period of the electric industry and chemistry, and
   IV.  The period of petrochemistry and the motor industry.
   Without the discovery of the steam engine industrialism would have been postponed for decades or even centuries with the already mentioned consequences. The cultivation of cotton has in many areas demanded the use of herbicides and irrigation, the consequences of which last long in those areas. Although the steel industry has resulted in considerable pollution emissions, it will be remembered as one of the first recycling industries. The development of the railways was long neglected, but is now making a strong comeback due to heavy pollution (40 % in Europe) by motor traffic.
      The third and fourth periods are in a very interesting situation. The latter is mainly based on the use of fossil energy, the reserves of which are dwindling away. For instance, more than half of raw oil deposits has already been used. Thus it is natural that the barrel price tends to increase in world spot markets. Our present elements of "well-being" are mainly based on these disappearing natural resources which has fundamental importance in the planning of the future. I'll return to these problematics later in this paper.
     In the same way as the railways are making a comeback the key elements of the third period are returning to the main focus. In order to be able to pay the bill resulting from the uncontrolled use of chemicals we expect more sophisticated solutions from chemistry, with the aid of which we may clean the polluted soils and waters. At the moment it is evident that chemicals result in lowering the reproduction rate of many animals or even prevent it in the area of their influence.
    The electronics of the third period still "live" today in the solutions of the period of information technology (IT). It represents sustainable development more than the previous periods, since its main solutions demand less material and consume less energy than the great majority of those of the previous periods. It is another question, whether people will decrease their overall consumption or not for this reason.
    Everyone of the major periods passed have lasted, as already mentioned, 40 through 60 years. This will also concern the present IT period. Its highlight may even be shorter than 40 years and its climax already be behind us. This means that we should prepare to the next period of economic depression during the next few years as well as to the next rise, whatever it may be.

Human population growth
    The most dramatic inheritance of the last century of the second millennium to the next one was, and is, steep human population growth. An animal herbivore population tends to grow to the limit of the carrying capacity of its pastures, if limiting factor(s) (predators, diseases, etc.) do(es) not stop it before this point. The human population tends to follow this growth pattern: one billion new inhabitants during each 12 years. The number already exceeds 6 000 million people.
    A herbivore population cannot have infinite growth in a restricted area and a human population cannot have infinite growth in a finite world. The development has, however, not been the same in all parts of this planet. In many industrialized countries, especially in Europe, the key problem is not population growth, since the number of people tends likely to decrease rather than to increase. In these countries the most serious problem is unsustainable, high rate per capita consumption, pollution and resource depletion - with the aid of modern technology even fewer people may destroy their environment and natural resources. In the so-called developing countries the key problems arise from high birth and population growth rates. Interestingly the United States ranks high in both of the above-mentioned categories. It has inordinately high per capita consumption and pollution rates and very rapid human population growth. There is no sustainability in these trends.
 Global traps
    The activities of man have led the species itself into very serious situations, "global traps", from which it is very difficult to get out of.
    The most serious trap involves the mentioned steep human population growth. Already now (in the year 2000) every fifth (i.e. 1,2 billion) of the over six billion people live undernourished in extreme poverty. The gap between the wealthy and poor people widens every day.
    The immediate consequence of the extreme poverty is that the people in question cannot be expected to have any concern about environmental issues - their only interest concentrates on the finding/acquiring of a piece of food, and wood to be used as fuel. This advances desertification and erosion.
    Similarly man destroys its original home, the rain forests, the lungs of the earth. Cultivation by clearing and burning-over woodland increases both the greenhouse effect and erosion, as well as decreasing biodiversity. Disposable use of land has not, as such, any sense, in the case of the rain forests it is in addition in many ways disastrous.
    Arable land can be made unusable for cultivation in
several ways, like acid precipitation, use of cadmium-rich fertilizers and heavy use of pesticides as well as by building highways and structure on it. The first three mentioned usually simultaneously concern vast areas in the same way which increases their local and global importance in the negative sense.
    Desertification may also concern lakes and seas. Lake Aral was destroyed by the cotton industry. Parts of the bottom areas of the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea are biologically dead. The streams and rivers running to them have been used as poison and chemical sewers in order to improve the short-term business result of private companies. Many animal species living in these polluted waters are already suffering from reproduction failure.
    We all know that the Justus Liebig Law of Minimum says how the essential nutrient which occurs as a minimum amount limits the growth of plants. The present human population on the earth is faced to the scarcity of two resources which are either really necessary or man has developed them to be necessary in his/her every-day life. They are fresh water and fossil fuels.
     The availability of fresh water will set limits on the location of human settlements. Still today fossil fuels can be used for the transportation of fresh water to areas where no surface fresh water sources are available and the groundwater has either been used or polluted. So still today countries on the Arabian Peninsula may try to buy fresh water from the Nordic countries, i.e. exchange it for raw oil. However, this may be possible only 30-40 years forward, if they continue to sell their oil in the present way.
     A serious global trap is that the industrialized world has not yet commenced building a new solar energy system which would compensate for the disappearance of fossil fuels. This idleness means that all the economically usable fossil energy resources will be used and the earth will suffer from greenhouse effects inclusive the rise of the sea water surface and the drowning of some island and coastal areas in oceans.
    Why has this trap been allowed to form, since this situation has been known for a long time? The reason is in the revolution which took place on this planet during the latter half of the 20th century. Supranational market forces wrested power from the regimes of national states, at first from those of the "developing" countries and then in practice also from the "G7" or "G8" countries. The only visible role which the latter still have is to remit the debts of the poorest countries. This will be realized by printing more US dollars. National regimes and parliaments have silently accepted the status of "supra religion" for the supranational market forces without presuming from them "world conscience" and the rules arising from it. They have accordingly been unable to decide about worldwide binding environment agreements which would really improve the situation.
     The existence of the "G8" indicates that there are in relative terms very few powerful states among the about 200 states on the globe. The same tends to be true in the business world, too. Supranational companies tend to merge into bigger and bigger units. This reduces national power to the right of decision during "good years" and in depression conditions increases negative national level consequences, especially if the firm has considerable activities in the country. The concentration of risks is real, since IT, for instance, is said to run markets of 1700 billion US dollars. This naturally involves a risk to the worldwide system of supranational market forces itself. IT may be the most effective experienced so far in saturating its own markets, after which there will be a worldwide depression.
   
National niche for decision making
   The only goal of the supranational companies is to maximize the short-term profits to be delivered to their shareholders. This may be performed wherever on the globe, great mobility belonging to the strategy of almost every company. Low taxation rate is one of the benefits sought. American style social insurance might fit best to their purposes. If this were the only policy to be carried out, this would further increase unequality in each country and on the globe in general.
    At the same time the European integration process, for instance, works in the same direction. On the one hand, taxation rate should be low, and, on the other hand, the budgets of the states involved in the process should be continuously in balance. It is easy to detect the influences of the lobbying of the supranational companies in this policy. Although integration has been marketed as a counterforce against supranational market forces, so far all steps taken have helped the operation of the latter on inner and inter-markets.
     The market economy also works in structures towards both equality and unequality. During a prosperity phase income disparity tends to increase and during a depression it narrows. This was very clearly verified in Finland in the 1990's. Political decision-makers may accept and even actively support these general mechanisms arising from market economy, but they may also work to level out social differences in the society and narrow income disparity. Attitudes to these points still sort political parties into more or less right- and left-wing ones.
     After the second world war it has been usual in democracies that during periods of economic depression the regimes tend to first cut the social and health care appropriations. These cuttings have especially concerned poor people, since wealthy people are able to pay their bills in all situations. Here one is very near to seeking for analogy with the habits of the deceased cultures described above: during the depression phase bad habits also tended to become general in them.
     Although the major international structures support more the benefit of supranational companies and their shareholders than individual inhabitants of this planet, there must be economic freedom of action to solidarity within the states and internationally, if we intend to save the globe.

Necessary fundamental global activities
    This new millennium's most important issue is human population growth. When thinking of possible measures to save the globe, one must keep in mind that if the realization of the plan is not thought to be active until a decade from now, the net increase of the human population during this interval will be about one billion people. All those new inhabitants of the globe will seek for food and shelter, adequate space to live. Thus the measures selected must be massive and effective, and the wealthy nations must be ready to devote a significant portion of their national budgets for the development of co-operation in "developing" countries. This portion is then away from other "good" purposes in own country.
     The "G8" countries promised in July 2000 to help a half of the poorest people during the next few years. It is, however, decisive what measures are selected for this purpose. They must be multifunctional and they have to represent sustainable development. There are two objects which are above all others, namely (a) humane co-operation with women in order to limit population growth and (b) massive agroforestry establishment measures in order to cut desertification processes, slow the greenhouse effect as well as produce both food and shelter in a sustainable way for local people. During the last century the bulk of the money consumed in its development of co-operation has unfortunately resulted in more damage than sustainable development. This alternative must be introduced to the regimes of the "developing" countries so that they accept this new policy.
     If one should ask from the United States' food industry companies their suggestion for the food sufficiency problem of the world, their answer would inevitably be: "GMOs". At first European and now also American consumers have, however, replied to that "NO". They simply don't buy GMO-products. The most serious situation might be that the people of "developing" countries were fed by "GMOs", whereas wealthy people of "developed" countries would avoid them. For environmental reasons we urgently need worldwide rules for the use of GM-technology. Without them there is a risk of significant environmental catastrophes.
     The third field constitutes energy policy. A considerable portion of the present technoculture is based on the use of fossil energy sources and uranium, the sources of which are very restricted. We have already used more than a half of the economically usable raw oil sources. In fact there is only a period of two decades to build up a new solar-energy based culture. It means naturally developing and manufacturing new equipment, but also fundamentally new decision-making on the use of land: which areas are to be used for growing biomass, which for installation of solar panels and windmills, etc. This process will finally show how restricted this planet for about 9-10 billion inhabitants really is. Energy for doing all this will mainly be received from the fossil energy still available. It is also needed for the massive agroforestry project during the next two decades.
     The raw material markets are also characterized by scarcity which tends to increase their unit prices. Fortunately many of them (metals, glas, rubber, paper, carton, etc.) are already partly recycled. When the period of fossil energy is passed, and the unit price of energy is permanently at a new, higher level, recycling of raw materials will be the rule. Together with the concentrations of consumers it will decide the reasonable location of reuse-industry units.
     The ideal of market economy researchers has been the worldwide division of labour and free movement of goods, labour and money. At last the new high level of the price of energy will prevent its full implementation - only the most expensive goods are worth transporting from one continent to another. Otherwise decentralized production will be dominant. This may also lead to splitting of supranational companies to continental or areal ones. If this really takes place, it will a little bit improve the control of their activities in relation to the environment and employees.
     One of the reasons why the steps towards sustainable development have been short and slow, is the political weakness of the United Nations and its co-organizations. World market events, economic integrates in Europe, the Americas and Far East have "stolen" the publicity. However, just in the present stage of the globe the United Nations is needed more than ever since its establishment in 1945. The plenum of the UN would be the right forum where "G8", for instance, should present its decisions and have a dialogue with the representatives of the other nations. The media has a decisive role in demanding this kind of change in world politics. So far the media has been more interested in recording when one billion people carry a mobile phone than when the more than one billion undernourished people get their every-day food.
Multiaction period as next
   The events in the world stock markets in the year 2000 have shown that the so-called market forces have no sense in their profit demands. They do not accept the fact that in a finite world infinite growth is impossible. This ignorance can only lead to a worldwide steep crash in the stock markets. Due to the lack of liquid money it will stop the rapid expansion in the IT sector and leave further development to take place in less hectic conditions.
    As already mentioned, IT constituts a 1700 billion US dollars market. The corresponding figure for the motor industry has been said to be 1200 billion US dollars. Recalling the situation in the beginning of the 1930's the expected depression between the two major periods can be raised to a action with the volumes of this size class. There will be, however, basic differences in this respect as compared to the past.
   The most significant differences are that there will be no dominant sector to characterize the next period(s) and that we cannot speak about economic growth in the old, conventional way. The next period might be called a "multiaction" one. It will gather its main activities from those necessities which formed as such, since the people and especially companies of the previous periods had neglected their environmental duties. They also include the agroforestry establishments in the desertificated areas.
    Sustainable development presumes that old energy systems are replaced with those using renewable energy sources and that energy and material-consuming technical solutions are replaced by energy saving ones. Many of the findings of the periods of electronics and IT are thus still, in principle, useful. They are also used in environmental technology which in such may achieve a 500 billion US dollars market. Biotechnology tends to grow, but environmental risks will strongly limit the markets for its solutions.
    The mean life expectancy of the people of the rich western countries increased throughout the latter half on the 20th century. Especially the wealthy portions of their populations appreciate pure and healthy food, good medical services and safety on the national and personal level. Solvent people are ready to pay for services and knowledge which raise their living standard. Many of them are likely pay for the knowledge of their own mtDNA sequences and the risks involved in them. When energy and transportation are expensive, wealthy people concentrate their money consumption to the standard of their immediate surroundings and themselves. The money streams created in this way are considerable and aim at a high standard of health care and medical research. On the other hand, at the same time the human population of the globe will be more and more divided into the sections of wealthy people and poor people which fight for their existence.
    Services have already played a significant role in the post-industrialized society of the IT period. Since they usually mean low consumption of energy and material, their importance even increases both during the transitory depression and the successive multiaction period.
Masking factor possibility
    The science of ecology studies the relationships of plants and animals to their outside world. In the same way we can speak about the "ecology of man". Limiting factors play an essential role in the life of animals. One of them is above all others, namely the one called "a masking factor". It masks the influence of all the other limiting factors. When man sets his foot on an ant so that it dies, man has been a masking factor in the life of this ant.
   Masking factors also concern man. Human population growth is becoming a masking factor which threatens man as a species. Man can accelerate the destructive development by commencing to fight for the remaining natural resources. The war in Kuwait was a prologue of this kind of possibility. When we recall the life curve of the deceased cultures, the competition for resources growing scarce is to be expected. Since nations as units and alliances have heavily armed in case of a war, we must work hard so that the competition does not change into a war. Then war would be a massive masking factor.

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