Avajaispuhe NJF:n huoltovarmuuskonferenssissa Helsingissä 5.11.2008
Ladies and Gentlemen!

Food and shelter are basic ecological factors in the life of animals. The list of limiting factors including these two constitutes the core of the science of ecology. As a student of this University in the late 1950s and in the beginning of -60s I studied both animal ecology and national economy, nowadays called economics. On the basis of lectures and textbooks I suggested to the professors that the findings of animal abundance ecology should be taken into consideration when seeking explanations to the phenomena of market economy. The comments are not worth of citing here.

      Later on as a university professor, a trade union leader, a long-term parliamentarian and author I have returned in my mind to what I learned at the early stages of my University studies. The history of market economy has been the history of successive market crisis during the past two centuries. The learning of the use of fossil energy resources, results of the primary production during the past 500 million years, appeared as a "special offer" to the human species, the age of which is only 195 000 years. This "offer" has been a big chance but it has not been a real success. Fortunately, we still have time to build up a sustainable renewable energy system. Peak oil is a reality.

        The key issue of our time is globalization. This is, however, not the first such process. Two earlier ones constituted attempts to survive. The first, the story of a big game hunter ended to the extinction of megafauna. At that time the only remarkable choice available was to commence agriculture and animal husbandry which took place 10 000 - 13 000 years ago. The restrictions of religions with the aid of the second globalization process lead to the compensation of costly meat production with plant food. This scarcity period offered both farmers and cultivated land for the modern agriculture which is mainly based on the use of distils of raw oil and products made from or with natural gas.

        Population explosion, decrease of the area of cultivated land, very strong fluctuations of the prices of raw oil, endless greediness of wealthy people around the globe and very low control level of financial world markets have resulted in the coincidence of several serious crisis. The combination of food, logistics (due to very strong fluctuations of oil prices) and financial crisis is one of the worst ever possible. It is clear that hundreds of millions of citizens are in real danger. Climate change does not in general improve the situation in most parts of the globe. Climate changes belong to the nature of our planet, but the present one has partly been the result of our own measures.

         I commenced my address by reminding of the importance of limiting factors. Canadian scientist Fry added the masking factor to this list. It is a factor which masks the influence of the other limiting factors. The crisis I mentioned earlier represent the present masking factors which, at the moment, have a worldwide dimension. The situation is new to everybody. The situation is almost as serious as it was when megafauna was on the way to extinction tens of thousands of years ago. The difference from the standpoint of our species lies in the fact that now science may succeed in showing the road map to sustainable use of natural resources.

          Ladies and gentlemen! Finally I want to emphasize the importance of supply security. Whatever the integration development will be, due to the ongoing worldwide crisis every national state and region must pay special attention to its own supply securities. The reason is simple: predictability has decreased. We tend to consume more than this planet produces.

          I present my best wishes to the findings of this important conference. Do not forget the importance of basic ecological factors, especially the significance of masking factors!   
          
Takaisin